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 Coronavirus Covid-19 
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Wchauvin wrote:
Winn10 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
MNGunner wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
I’m not gathering resources or buying extra things at the store. If things get that bad and society starts freaking out, I’m going to take resources from the people who already gathered them for me lol



So your plan is to take from the people that planned ahead and worked hard? .....Democrat?


Not a Democrat, just a wolf in a large group of sheep. If the need for that comes, best believe that me, my family, and my associates will want for nothing. Democrats don’t approve of the methods I will use to get what I need if it comes to that point, trust that.


Why not just prep ahead for your family and your assiciates? You think that the people smart enough to prep for years and years are gonna roll over and let you take whats theirs? You think they dont already know people will try to do what you said, and have a plan for that?

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Of course they have plans and ideas and some will put up resistance, but I have a plan as well. I doubt it will get to that point, but if it does, I’ll get what I need from whoever I need to get it from.
You need to do some serious self reflecting.


Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:50 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Again, I think my point is being missed. Read my last post. If that doesn’t explain what I’m talking about then forget about it.

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Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:55 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Winn10 wrote:
I get it, and i understand, and i seriously doubt it will either. I do think youre missing my point though. Youre a young fellow i take it? This is a good lesson that shit happens suddenly! Start "prepping", "stockpiling", whatever you want to call it, now. That way your family's survival isnt dependent on your ability to pillage another family thats gonna fight just as hard as you to protect their family/stuff. You love your family, so why would you want put them, or yourself in harms way because you werent prepared.

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you are right, and I agree with that point

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Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:02 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Today will go down as the worst professional day in my long career. I had to tell many people that they no longer had a way to earn an income due to covid-19. The Governor shut us down due to the virus. I am good at a few things in life but that isn’t one them. I pray that we can get back up and running soon.

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Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:20 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
I hope things get better for you my bro

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Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:14 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Wchauvin you still a LEO?


Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:52 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Bigbend wrote:
Wchauvin you still a LEO?


Apparently just until he has to start robbing houses for toilet paper


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Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:45 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Negative. I work in the private sector now.

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Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
Bigbend wrote:
Wchauvin you still a LEO?


Apparently just until he has to start robbing houses for toilet paper


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You missed the point I was trying to make. I’m not going to be robbing anyone for toilet paper. Forget about it. Stock up on what you think you need.

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Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:36 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
WhoDat88 wrote:
Today will go down as the worst professional day in my long career. I had to tell many people that they no longer had a way to earn an income due to covid-19. The Governor shut us down due to the virus. I am good at a few things in life but that isn’t one them. I pray that we can get back up and running soon.

I hope it’s only temporary. I’m sorry you had to do that. I’ve had experience being on both sides of that coin and it just sucks. Especially when it’s no fault of the person who works hard and is at the mercy of circumstances

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Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:45 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
While it is sad to see business shutdowns - even the full Port of Houston closed briefly - thankfully open again

It is also sad to see Texas and Louisiana with 500 cases confirmed and numerous deaths

Be safe - take reasonable steps to prevent spreading or catching this or even just the ordinary flu

If less people die from the flu this year we may even save more lives because of all these Covid precautions

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Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:27 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Dang Wc you know Chad by chance


Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:11 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Any thoughts of Louisiana stay in place order?


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Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:31 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
GNSPEED wrote:
Dang Wc you know Chad by chance


Chad who?

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Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:23 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
yup wrote:
Any thoughts of Louisiana stay in place order?


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Whatever we have to do to end this shit and get back to normal. This is pure madness

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Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:24 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.

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Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:34 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


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Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:46 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
The virus has increased to almost double the cases in just louisiana. Jobs are shutting down by the day and businesses are closing for the time being. Crime increases toward the middle and end of the summer because kids start getting idle. You will see a major increase in crime if this continues for another 2 weeks because people will get restless, start stressing over finances more, and won’t be able to occupy their time with anything because everything is shut down.

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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


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what doesn’t indicate that, bruh?

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Post Coronavirus Covid-19
Wchauvin wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


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what doesn’t indicate that, bruh?


Given it is following the exact logarithmic growth scale anticipated, market liquidity and repo rates are safe, asset prices are relatively stable and close to or maybe even below intrinsic value, the massive age disparity between us and Italy’s population, and the 2 trillion $ capital injection tells me this will be a great joke in due time.

Nothing about this isn’t following the expected plan. Given the 2-3 week hiatus that’s happening now, I have a hard time believing the “curve” won’t flatten and normal life won’t continue. It’s very doubtful that hospitals will be overwhelmed outside of major hot zones like NYC, where even there external resources can be applied. As such, it’s very reasonable to believe life will progressively return to normal soon. The case load isn’t a-typical, most all areas aren’t seeing the mass casualties seen in older nations with poorer infrastructure. My concern all lies either business and right now there are increasingly more and more positive signs. Will there be ill effects in some areas, sure, but it is doubtful that this will be a prolonged or extreme issue for the overwhelming majority of people.

I may be wrong, but I’m fairly confident the sources I follow are pretty accurate.


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Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:11 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Lumpy. Lumpy. Lumpy. Lumpy. Lumpy.

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Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:45 am
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


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what doesn’t indicate that, bruh?


Given it is following the exact logarithmic growth scale anticipated, market liquidity and repo rates are safe, asset prices are relatively stable and close to or maybe even below intrinsic value, the massive age disparity between us and Italy’s population, and the 2 trillion $ capital injection tells me this will be a great joke in due time.

Nothing about this isn’t following the expected plan. Given the 2-3 week hiatus that’s happening now, I have a hard time believing the “curve” won’t flatten and normal life won’t continue. It’s very doubtful that hospitals will be overwhelmed outside of major hot zones like NYC, where even there external resources can be applied. As such, it’s very reasonable to believe life will progressively return to normal soon. The case load isn’t a-typical, most all areas aren’t seeing the mass casualties seen in older nations with poorer infrastructure. My concern all lies either business and right now there are increasingly more and more positive signs. Will there be ill effects in some areas, sure, but it is doubtful that this will be a prolonged or extreme issue for the overwhelming majority of people.

I may be wrong, but I’m fairly confident the sources I follow are pretty accurate.


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Love the optimism but...

The growth is exponential NOT logarithmic
The Fed had to pump in $1.2T into the banking system (this is in addition to the $2T stimulus) because the banks were facing a liquidity trap. The fed is also doing unlimited quantitative easing (not done unlimited in 2008)
Asset prices are far from stable—we’re seeing unbelievable volatility (swings of 5%+ daily)
Repos haven’t hit yet because they take months to show up—you have to be behind on your mortgage for months before they can even start the process
3.2million new unemployment claims came out today.

The only hope is this distancing will decrease the number of daily cases to a manageable level

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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


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what doesn’t indicate that, bruh?


Given it is following the exact logarithmic growth scale anticipated, market liquidity and repo rates are safe, asset prices are relatively stable and close to or maybe even below intrinsic value, the massive age disparity between us and Italy’s population, and the 2 trillion $ capital injection tells me this will be a great joke in due time.

Nothing about this isn’t following the expected plan. Given the 2-3 week hiatus that’s happening now, I have a hard time believing the “curve” won’t flatten and normal life won’t continue. It’s very doubtful that hospitals will be overwhelmed outside of major hot zones like NYC, where even there external resources can be applied. As such, it’s very reasonable to believe life will progressively return to normal soon. The case load isn’t a-typical, most all areas aren’t seeing the mass casualties seen in older nations with poorer infrastructure. My concern all lies either business and right now there are increasingly more and more positive signs. Will there be ill effects in some areas, sure, but it is doubtful that this will be a prolonged or extreme issue for the overwhelming majority of people.

I may be wrong, but I’m fairly confident the sources I follow are pretty accurate.


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Love the optimism but...

The growth is exponential NOT logarithmic
The Fed had to pump in $1.2T into the banking system (this is in addition to the $2T stimulus) because the banks were facing a liquidity trap. The fed is also doing unlimited quantitative easing (not done unlimited in 2008)
Asset prices are far from stable—we’re seeing unbelievable volatility (swings of 5%+ daily)
Repos haven’t hit yet because they take months to show up—you have to be behind on your mortgage for months before they can even start the process
3.2million new unemployment claims came out today.

The only hope is this distancing will decrease the number of daily cases to a manageable level

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Post Coronavirus Covid-19
MNGunner wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:
Wchauvin wrote:
It’s going to get much worse, trust me.


What indicates that.....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


what doesn’t indicate that, bruh?


Given it is following the exact logarithmic growth scale anticipated, market liquidity and repo rates are safe, asset prices are relatively stable and close to or maybe even below intrinsic value, the massive age disparity between us and Italy’s population, and the 2 trillion $ capital injection tells me this will be a great joke in due time.

Nothing about this isn’t following the expected plan. Given the 2-3 week hiatus that’s happening now, I have a hard time believing the “curve” won’t flatten and normal life won’t continue. It’s very doubtful that hospitals will be overwhelmed outside of major hot zones like NYC, where even there external resources can be applied. As such, it’s very reasonable to believe life will progressively return to normal soon. The case load isn’t a-typical, most all areas aren’t seeing the mass casualties seen in older nations with poorer infrastructure. My concern all lies either business and right now there are increasingly more and more positive signs. Will there be ill effects in some areas, sure, but it is doubtful that this will be a prolonged or extreme issue for the overwhelming majority of people.

I may be wrong, but I’m fairly confident the sources I follow are pretty accurate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Love the optimism but...

The growth is exponential NOT logarithmic
The Fed had to pump in $1.2T into the banking system (this is in addition to the $2T stimulus) because the banks were facing a liquidity trap. The fed is also doing unlimited quantitative easing (not done unlimited in 2008)
Asset prices are far from stable—we’re seeing unbelievable volatility (swings of 5%+ daily)
Repos haven’t hit yet because they take months to show up—you have to be behind on your mortgage for months before they can even start the process
3.2million new unemployment claims came out today.

The only hope is this distancing will decrease the number of daily cases to a manageable level


Let’s break this down,

Exponential growth- nope..... It’s logarithmic because there is a plateau. If it was exponential more people would die than are alive. Again, the rates have matched what was expected.
Image


The remaining amount of stimulus may or may not be needed. We will see. As for the QE, we have to wait and see whether they surpass the burnout rate. QE can be good, can be bad. Depends, and only time will tell. In a global market though, QE and low T-rates are needed because of currency manipulation in foreign markets.

Asset prices have daily volatility because of speculation. Very few companies have actually lost the value of assets on their balance sheets. Sales may drop some in a few areas, but will rise in others. All you have seen is a loss in speculative value, not a big drop in the assets intrinsic value.

Might want to go research repos..... that’s a repossession of items you bought via a loan, not the Repo market. The QE and capital injections are keeping repo markets moving.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... eement.asp

Yup, 3.2 million. An overwhelming amount of which are low wage service industry workers that will find work as soon as those industries are opened up again which may be sooner than expected. Not downplaying their work, but rather pointing out those are in many cases quick fill positions so once the markets open again, game on. Again, time will tell but that’s not an overwhelming number at all in the short term.

Maybe it’s optimism, but again, in 6-12 months let’s see what the markets and daily life looks like.

It’s easy to paint a picture of doom and gloom, but as it stands for the overwhelming number of people in a few weeks this will hopefully be a good joke and a meme.



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Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:



Let’s break this down,

Exponential growth- nope..... It’s logarithmic because there is a plateau. If it was exponential more people would die than are alive. Again, the rates have matched what was expected.
Image


The remaining amount of stimulus may or may not be needed. We will see. As for the QE, we have to wait and see whether they surpass the burnout rate. QE can be good, can be bad. Depends, and only time will tell. In a global market though, QE and low T-rates are needed because of currency manipulation in foreign markets.

Asset prices have daily volatility because of speculation. Very few companies have actually lost the value of assets on their balance sheets. Sales may drop some in a few areas, but will rise in others. All you have seen is a loss in speculative value, not a big drop in the assets intrinsic value.

Might want to go research repos..... that’s a repossession of items you bought via a loan, not the Repo market. The QE and capital injections are keeping repo markets moving.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... eement.asp

Yup, 3.2 million. An overwhelming amount of which are low wage service industry workers that will find work as soon as those industries are opened up again which may be sooner than expected. Not downplaying their work, but rather pointing out those are in many cases quick fill positions so once the markets open again, game on. Again, time will tell but that’s not an overwhelming number at all in the short term.

Maybe it’s optimism, but again, in 6-12 months let’s see what the markets and daily life looks like.

It’s easy to paint a picture of doom and gloom, but as it stands for the overwhelming number of people in a few weeks this will hopefully be a good joke and a meme.

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That's NOT the growth curve of the covid-19 in the US or the world--you drew a cartoon a log curve that does not match (model) the growth of this virus :lol: ! It's exponentially growing (see the link). Log growth is incredibly slow (slower than linear much let alone exponential). This is the current growth rate (there are several graphs and they are all exponential in nature NOT logarithmic):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... otal-cases



Regarding your other points, I was merely refuting your earlier comment that "asset prices are stable". Far from it, they are gyrating wildly with massive volatility. Check out the VIX index over the last 6 months (or even year):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/

Here's another one from John's hopkins if you don't like that source:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
and Barrons
https://www.barrons.com/articles/mylan- ... 1585160643

Jobs are lost easily but slow to return. The low wage workers that are being hit the hardest will only return to work "quickly" IF this thing ends quickly (also, my earlier point). Otherwise, resturantes and hotels will continue to go out of business as will Uber drivers, etc.

To your point about liquidity running smoothly, the Fed had to pump in $1.5T a couple weeks ago to keep the credit markets from seizing up;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN20Z31H

Regarding repos, yes, I misunderstood--I thought you were referring to house/car repos/foreclosures.

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Post Coronavirus Covid-19
MNGunner wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:



Let’s break this down,

Exponential growth- nope..... It’s logarithmic because there is a plateau. If it was exponential more people would die than are alive. Again, the rates have matched what was expected.
Image


The remaining amount of stimulus may or may not be needed. We will see. As for the QE, we have to wait and see whether they surpass the burnout rate. QE can be good, can be bad. Depends, and only time will tell. In a global market though, QE and low T-rates are needed because of currency manipulation in foreign markets.

Asset prices have daily volatility because of speculation. Very few companies have actually lost the value of assets on their balance sheets. Sales may drop some in a few areas, but will rise in others. All you have seen is a loss in speculative value, not a big drop in the assets intrinsic value.

Might want to go research repos..... that’s a repossession of items you bought via a loan, not the Repo market. The QE and capital injections are keeping repo markets moving.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... eement.asp

Yup, 3.2 million. An overwhelming amount of which are low wage service industry workers that will find work as soon as those industries are opened up again which may be sooner than expected. Not downplaying their work, but rather pointing out those are in many cases quick fill positions so once the markets open again, game on. Again, time will tell but that’s not an overwhelming number at all in the short term.

Maybe it’s optimism, but again, in 6-12 months let’s see what the markets and daily life looks like.

It’s easy to paint a picture of doom and gloom, but as it stands for the overwhelming number of people in a few weeks this will hopefully be a good joke and a meme.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


That's NOT the growth curve of the covid-19 in the US or the world--you drew a cartoon a log curve that does not match (model) the growth of this virus :lol: ! It's exponentially growing (see the link). Log growth is incredibly slow (slower than linear much let alone exponential). This is the current growth rate (there are several graphs and they are all exponential in nature NOT logarithmic):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... otal-cases



Regarding your other points, I was merely refuting your earlier comment that "asset prices are stable". Far from it, they are gyrating wildly with massive volatility. Check out the VIX index over the last 6 months (or even year):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/

Here's another one from John's hopkins if you don't like that source:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
and Barrons
https://www.barrons.com/articles/mylan- ... 1585160643

Jobs are lost easily but slow to return. The low wage workers that are being hit the hardest will only return to work "quickly" IF this thing ends quickly (also, my earlier point). Otherwise, resturantes and hotels will continue to go out of business as will Uber drivers, etc.

To your point about liquidity running smoothly, the Fed had to pump in $1.5T a couple weeks ago to keep the credit markets from seizing up;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN20Z31H

Regarding repos, yes, I misunderstood--I thought you were referring to house/car repos/foreclosures.



Dude go back and take a math class. Explain how it is exponential if it plateaus. The initial growth phase of a contagion appears exponential until a decent portion is infected or isolated then it quickly becomes logarithmic. Read below on what logarithmic is....


“Logarithmic Model

Logarithmic modelFunction

y = a + b ln x

Features

Increases without bound to right
Passes through (1,a),
Very rapid growth, followed by slower growth,
Common log will grow slower than natural log
b controls the rate of growth
The logarithmic model has a period of rapid increase, followed by a period where the growth slows, but the growth continues to increase without bound.”

That’s how viruses spread, and the earlier you isolate, the faster the equation changes and approaches the asymptote. The vast majority of the country is in the logarithmic phase of spread. That’s EXACTLY why isolation is implemented, why we have transitioned to the logarithmic growth phase, and why we are quickly approaching the plateau.

Image

That’s what has happened in both China and Italy and very likely will take place in the VAST majority of the US soon with all of the isolation. We will see more cases because we are testing more which will drive up the case number initially but that will drive quicker towards the max.

Image

Image


Second, yes the fed did which is why I said liquidity and repo is safe. The worst case was realized, cash injection took place, and the world is still going fine. That was weeks ago when fears emerged, people panicked and froze, and an injection occurred to keep repo rates running fine. Now the big bad wolf is here, we recognize it’s actual impacts, and that’s why markets have bottomed and are starting to rise again.

A handful of big business will suffer short term effects. A handful of mismanaged ones will suffer immensely. The corona virus is not the cause, but rather the pin that popped a bubble. Prices have hit great levels for value investors, and have corrected to a far more proper level.

At this point there really isn’t much more to argue. Here is a summary:

My argument: stock prices were overvalued, balance sheets will see very little change for most companies, so the correction is at its bottom and volatility is solely speculation. Markets are good and a value investors opportunity. The virus is on a logarithmic growth rate and is plateauing within the next few weeks.

Your argument: the markets are in turmoil, volatility will continue forever. Virus case rates are exponential so soon more people will have the virus than currently exist in the world.

We will see in a few weeks who was closer in their assessment.


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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
MNGunner wrote:
bluesky2012 wrote:



Let’s break this down,

Exponential growth- nope..... It’s logarithmic because there is a plateau. If it was exponential more people would die than are alive. Again, the rates have matched what was expected.
Image


The remaining amount of stimulus may or may not be needed. We will see. As for the QE, we have to wait and see whether they surpass the burnout rate. QE can be good, can be bad. Depends, and only time will tell. In a global market though, QE and low T-rates are needed because of currency manipulation in foreign markets.

Asset prices have daily volatility because of speculation. Very few companies have actually lost the value of assets on their balance sheets. Sales may drop some in a few areas, but will rise in others. All you have seen is a loss in speculative value, not a big drop in the assets intrinsic value.

Might want to go research repos..... that’s a repossession of items you bought via a loan, not the Repo market. The QE and capital injections are keeping repo markets moving.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... eement.asp

Yup, 3.2 million. An overwhelming amount of which are low wage service industry workers that will find work as soon as those industries are opened up again which may be sooner than expected. Not downplaying their work, but rather pointing out those are in many cases quick fill positions so once the markets open again, game on. Again, time will tell but that’s not an overwhelming number at all in the short term.

Maybe it’s optimism, but again, in 6-12 months let’s see what the markets and daily life looks like.

It’s easy to paint a picture of doom and gloom, but as it stands for the overwhelming number of people in a few weeks this will hopefully be a good joke and a meme.

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That's NOT the growth curve of the covid-19 in the US or the world--you drew a cartoon a log curve that does not match (model) the growth of this virus :lol: ! It's exponentially growing (see the link). Log growth is incredibly slow (slower than linear much let alone exponential). This is the current growth rate (there are several graphs and they are all exponential in nature NOT logarithmic):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... otal-cases



Regarding your other points, I was merely refuting your earlier comment that "asset prices are stable". Far from it, they are gyrating wildly with massive volatility. Check out the VIX index over the last 6 months (or even year):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/

Here's another one from John's hopkins if you don't like that source:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
and Barrons
https://www.barrons.com/articles/mylan- ... 1585160643

Jobs are lost easily but slow to return. The low wage workers that are being hit the hardest will only return to work "quickly" IF this thing ends quickly (also, my earlier point). Otherwise, resturantes and hotels will continue to go out of business as will Uber drivers, etc.

To your point about liquidity running smoothly, the Fed had to pump in $1.5T a couple weeks ago to keep the credit markets from seizing up;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN20Z31H

Regarding repos, yes, I misunderstood--I thought you were referring to house/car repos/foreclosures.



Dude go back and take a math class. Explain how it is exponential if it plateaus. The initial growth phase of a contagion appears exponential until a decent portion is infected or isolated then it is logarithmic. Read below on what logarithmic is....


“Logarithmic Model

Logarithmic modelFunction

y = a + b ln x

Features

Increases without bound to right
Passes through (1,a),
Very rapid growth, followed by slower growth,
Common log will grow slower than natural log
b controls the rate of growth
The logarithmic model has a period of rapid increase, followed by a period where the growth slows, but the growth continues to increase without bound.”

That’s how viruses spread, and the earlier you isolate, the faster the equation changes and approaches the asymptote. The vast majority of the country is in the logarithmic phase of spread. That’s EXACTLY why isolation is implemented, and why we are quickly approaching the plateau.

Image

That’s what has happened in both China and Italy and very likely will take place in the VAST majority of the US soon with all of the isolation. We will see more cases because we are testing more which will drive up the case number initially but that will drive quicker towards the max.

Image

Image


Second, yes the fed did which is why I said liquidity and repo is safe. The worst case was realized, cash injection took place, and the world is still going fine. That was weeks ago when fears emerged, people panicked and froze, and an injection occurred to keep repo rates running fine. Now the big bad wolf is here, we recognize it’s actual impacts, and that’s why markets have bottomed and are starting to rise again.

A handful of big business will suffer short term effects. A handful of mismanaged ones will suffer immensely. The corona virus is not the cause, but rather the pin that popped a bubble. Prices have hit great levels for value investors, and have corrected to a far more proper level.

At this point there really isn’t much more to argue. Here is a summary:

My argument: stock prices were overvalued, balance sheets will see very little change for most companies, so the correction is at its bottom and volatility is solely speculation. Markets are good and a value investors opportunity. The virus is on a logarithmic growth rate and is plateauing within the next few weeks.

Your argument: the markets are in turmoil, volatility will continue forever. Virus case rates are exponential so soon more people will have the virus than currently exist in the world.

We will see in a few weeks who was closer in their assessment.


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The reason why it will plateau is because it will not grow exponentially forever but it CURRENTLY is growing exponentially, NOT logarithmically as you state. Go look at the links of the current growth rates--CLEARLY exponential. They do not have the concavity or slow growth rate of a log function. Look at your own plots. Your red curve doesn't match Italy or China

This article is titled "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research" See the section entitled "The growth rate of COVID-19 deaths" subsection "Understanding exponential growth"
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Here's two articles from Forbes about the exponential growth nature of covid-19 (one entitled "Exponential Growth is so scary for Covid-19" and the other "The Math is Too Hard for people to Undersatnd Covid-19" . I think you fall in that second group for sure) :

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... aedbd46a9c

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswith ... 9009c44e9b

From the above article (Dr Ethan Seigel is theoretical astrophysicist--think he needs to "go back and take a math class" too??) :

"My colleague Dr. Ethan Siegel wrote an excellent piece in Forbes about how COVID-19 Coronavirus is growing at an exponential rate. He writes, “Whenever you have exponential growth, whatever it is that's growing will double its presence/population in a given amount of time.” I have been following various expert websites, and they all consistently show the exponential growth rate with COVID-19. "


It will actually follow a Guassian curve (whether treated or not--we just hope that that curve can be flattened as they keep saying in the briefings). A Gaussian grows as e**-(t-tmax)^2 where tmax is the peak of the epidemic. Exponential. Your China graph shows this and hopefully we can follow their course.

And show me where I said "volatility will continue forever" and "more people will get the virus than are currently on the earth". Never said any of that on this thread.

PS I have a bachelor's in Math, an advanced degree in Physics, over 25 peer reviewed scientific publications, 20+ years working in science and engineering and taught college math and physics.

PPS A log function also goes to infinity (just REALLY slowly), so are you saying there are going to be more cases than people on earth?? (that's your logic above anyway)

PPPS I hope you're correct about the assessments on business. I never disagreed with you that prior to covid-19 some assets were overvalued.

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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Interesting topic. Very much consuming the news at the moment.
New Zealand is on day 4 of Marshel law, complete lock down, borders are shut and only essential people are allowed to be working.
I'm lucky and my work is exempt, it does expose my family to higher risk but at the end of the day I'm not being asked to catch bullets for my country, it's a preventable virus with calculable risks.

It is a sucky time because the red stags and roaring and it's a month out from.duck shooting and at this stage both are off at this stage.

I did however get a few hunts in with some tourists from the Us, pro shooters. One ya'll may even recognize

Everyone do your part, be safe and I genuinely hope that you all bounce back, health, wealth and mentally after this as it is a stressful time.


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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
Walkers Bay Synd wrote:
Interesting topic. Very much consuming the news at the moment.
New Zealand is on day 4 of Marshel law, complete lock down, borders are shut and only essential people are allowed to be working.
I'm lucky and my work is exempt, it does expose my family to higher risk but at the end of the day I'm not being asked to catch bullets for my country, it's a preventable virus with calculable risks.

It is a sucky time because the red stags and roaring and it's a month out from.duck shooting and at this stage both are off at this stage.

I did however get a few hunts in with some tourists from the Us, pro shooters. One ya'll may even recognize

Everyone do your part, be safe and I genuinely hope that you all bounce back, health, wealth and mentally after this as it is a stressful time.


Jerry Miculek!!!! Awesome! Did he shoot everything with a S&W revolver :lol: ?

In my state we're under a "shelter in place", but there is an explicit exemption for hunting and fishing.

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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
This is what shelter in place does--fun little exercise to kill some time. I downloaded confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US data from Johns Hopkins and fit both exponential and logarithmic curves to it (all analysis done in Python and least squares fits determined using scipy.otpimize. The package determines the regression coefficients listed in the plot legend).

Not surprisingly it follows the exponential growth curve (red) while the log curve (blue) isn't even close (I also calculated the RSS for each--the log fit is laughable)


Image

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Post Coronavirus Covid-19
MNGunner wrote:
This is what shelter in place does--fun little exercise to kill some time. I downloaded confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US data from Johns Hopkins and fit both exponential and logarithmic curves to it (all analysis done in Python and least squares fits determined using scipy.otpimize. The package determines the regression coefficients listed in the plot legend).

Not surprisingly it follows the exponential growth curve (red) while the log curve (blue) isn't even close (I also calculated the RSS for each--the log fit is laughable)


Image


You’ve completely missed what I was saying again. I’ll restate it, it rises exponentially and then at transitions to a logarithmic (or eventually Gaussian distribution of cases drop as you stated). That’s the entire point of isolation and/or treatment: To push the transition point earlier and earlier. If the isolation and/or treatment works, cars will still rise briefly then flatten and hopefully drop.

With the increase in testing, we will see the ratios change even faster very likely for the better in relation to mortality rates.

Have fun with your doom and gloom though. In a matter of weeks it will be shown that this was way overblown and not near the crisis everyone is proclaiming for the VAST majority of people.

As I’ve said, you and I have completely different opinions on this entire thing. In time we will see who was right. Until this is done, I’m going to hold on and see.

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Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:51 pm
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Post Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
bluesky2012 wrote:
MNGunner wrote:
This is what shelter in place does--fun little exercise to kill some time. I downloaded confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US data from Johns Hopkins and fit both exponential and logarithmic curves to it (all analysis done in Python and least squares fits determined using scipy.otpimize. The package determines the regression coefficients listed in the plot legend).

Not surprisingly it follows the exponential growth curve (red) while the log curve (blue) isn't even close (I also calculated the RSS for each--the log fit is laughable)


Image


You’ve completely missed what I was saying again. I’ll restate it, it rises exponentially and then at transitions to a logarithmic (or eventually Gaussian distribution of cases drop as you stated). That’s the entire point of isolation and/or treatment: To push the transition point earlier and earlier. If the isolation and/or treatment works, cars will still rise briefly then flatten and hopefully drop.

With the increase in testing, we will see the ratios change even faster very likely for the better in relation to mortality rates.

Have fun with your doom and gloom though. In a matter of weeks it will be shown that this was way overblown and not near the crisis everyone is proclaiming for the VAST majority of people.

As I’ve said, you and I have completely different opinions on this entire thing. In time we will see who was right. Until this is done, I’m going to hold on and see.

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I didn't miss what you said. On three occasions you said it isn't rising exponentially, but insisted it's following a logarithmic curve (to the point where you tried to justify with cartoon pictures, a canned plot of a log--none of which match the data).

You are finally sort of getting it--it will follow a Gaussian curve which has three phases: (1) exponential growth, (2) inflection and (3) exponential decay. We are CURRENTLY in phase (1). It NEVER follows the log curve as you keep saying. To quote you from earlier, "Dude take a math class."

As far as "Doom and gloom" I've only presented a data based assessment of what is CURRENTLY happening (e.g. case growth rate, stock price volatility, etc.). I don't know what WILL happen but psst--I'm buying stocks right now so I clearly don't think the end of the world is at hand.

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