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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Oil Prices
I imagine there are quite a few others on here that are employed by the oil and gas industry like myself. I've got my own theories and beliefs on the subject of dropping prices. I am just curious on what others think about what's to come and why.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:35 pm |
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270Handiman
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:46 pm Posts: 2342 Location: Mandeville, LA
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Re: Oil Prices
The way I understand it, the Saudi's are trying to kill our new domestic shale oil companies and eliminate that competition. The shale guys need higher prices to justify their expenses, the Saudi's have much lower expenses and are flooding the market to hold prices down below what the shale guys need.
Am I way off base?
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:44 pm |
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msm8281
MMT Elite Member
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:50 pm Posts: 9673 Location: New Iberia, La.
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Re: Oil Prices
That's what I hear too. The Saudis make money on anything over like 15$ a bbl. The shale guys only make money over like 40-50$ a bbl.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:53 pm |
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GeorgiaRiverRunner
MMT Pro Member
Joined: Tue May 06, 2014 10:04 am Posts: 150 Location: North Georgia
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Re: Oil Prices
Same thing I've heard. Biggest thing is going to be the prices going back up. Everybody has some extra cash now that prices are low. Going to get in over their heads and crap will hit the fan again. Just too many people in the world that are near-sided and don't consider the what-ifs.
Good ole Georgia is trying to add additional gas tax with prices so low. We already have one of the highest in the SE. I really hope the people of Georgia are a lot smarter than our "elected" officials think.
_________________ 2014 Prodigy 1748 V-Rake 21" sides, Fish-Tail Design, 2 Rear Half Boxes, Catwalks with treys, front deck with hatch, and being ran by a MB Black Death 4500
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:56 pm |
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brickgw
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:15 pm Posts: 2032
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Re: Oil Prices
I know I sure like being able to fill up my truck for less than 90 bucks a pop.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:00 pm |
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msm8281
MMT Elite Member
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:50 pm Posts: 9673 Location: New Iberia, La.
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Re: Oil Prices
Yes it is nice, but the majority of the economy around here is oilfield. It's not going to be pretty when friends and family are out of work.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:08 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
That is definitely part of it, the Saudi's have been trying to undermine the "American Energy Revolution" ie. the shale revolution for a while now. Breakeven for the shale plays are different for every basin, but for the sake of argument they are all definitely higher than what US crude is going for right now. The Saudi's aren't only hurting us right now as most of oil producing/exporting countries are all budgeted for oil to be somewhere above $100, some as high as $130/bbl, and a lot of the countries that are suffering are included in OPEC. A lot people aren't including the Kuwait's in this problem, but they are definitely involved. One of the biggest hit by this is Russia, and I don't discount the theory that the glut was done purposely to injure them and Iran. There is definitely a glut of oil, and I don't blame the Saudi's for not giving up market share, but I do not like it. Now before I get scolded, here's what it comes down to is what will break first. Will Russia or Iran pick a fight or blow something up, sure maybe. But to stop drilling shale wells in the US with cause a huge drop in production in roughly a year, due to the characteristics of proven production in these wells. When a significant production loss occurs this will all turn around. A very wise man that I trust, value his opinion, and got me into the patch is predicting land will pick back up in '16 and off shore will pick back up in '17. Now where the bottom is nobody knows....
Sorry for being all over the place.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:09 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
The Saudi's budget is centered around $85 oil I believe, but they have huge cash reserves to weather a down turn.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:11 pm |
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DUCK HEARSE
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:48 am Posts: 3161 Location: Alabama
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Re: Oil Prices
Call your congress man and tell them to lift ban on exporting American oil let us sell to Europe and China
_________________ Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. - Mark Twain
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:14 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
I don't know that would help prices, only hurt them, but I'm definitely no expert. We have just now began exporting condensates. To raise oil prices here, I believe we would have to place an embargo on Middle Eastern oil like in the 70/80's I believe.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:19 pm |
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brickgw
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:15 pm Posts: 2032
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Re: Oil Prices
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:21 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
I don't know this to be 100% true, but the Saudi's are/were selling China discounted oil for some time now also hurting prices.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:21 pm |
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DUCK HEARSE
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:48 am Posts: 3161 Location: Alabama
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Re: Oil Prices
If we could export opec wouldn't have all the control they have.
_________________ Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. - Mark Twain
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:22 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
I find it weird that gas prices are on the rise where you are, as the price of oil continues to drop. I wonder if they are already imposing new gas taxes???
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:23 pm |
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DUCK HEARSE
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:48 am Posts: 3161 Location: Alabama
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Re: Oil Prices
_________________ Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. - Mark Twain
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:24 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
True.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:24 pm |
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Muddy ducks7
MMT Pro Member
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2014 3:12 pm Posts: 396 Location: Bama
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Re: Oil Prices
gas prices are low now butt I'm afraid that when they do go back up there gonna be higher then they was before they went down
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:48 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
So who all works for an oil/service company and what do you do. I'm a tool hand for a completion tool company that caters to the frac/multistage completion market. I worked for Halliburton previously running completion tools, service tools, and liner hangers.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:49 pm |
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msm8281
MMT Elite Member
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:50 pm Posts: 9673 Location: New Iberia, La.
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Re: Oil Prices
Subsea completion supervisor for BHI(Tool Hand)
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:51 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
I actually don't mind higher oil prices because I will always have a job domestically and at a good wage. Gas prices don't have to be that high, there are a slew of taxes placed on fuels and they are trying impose new ones as we speak.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:52 pm |
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dguidry
MMT Super Elite Member
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:20 pm Posts: 11166 Location: Cecilia, LA
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Re: Oil Prices
Fellas, the rest of the country doesn't like high oil prices. For everyone but LA, TX, Ok, low oil prices is a good thing economically. Now don't get this wrong, I'm all for drilling oil and the oilfield business, but she is a fickle bitch sometimes.
_________________ Formerly:1648 Homemade Cypress Crawfish Skiff GTR23 Performance Cam and Heads; 17x46 Gator Tail with 35GTR and Hoyt's cam;s Currently: 17x48 Gator Tail with XD40 EFI. “Wisdom is not just expertise. It is knowing how much of various areas of expertise you need to know in order to make the decisions that the world needs and that you want to do,” Columbia University President Lee Bollinger.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:05 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
Don't forget ND, WY, CO, SD, KS, AK, MS, UT, PA, OH, AR and even California.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:23 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
Oh and Montana.
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:23 pm |
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brstanle
MMT Addict
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:27 am Posts: 659 Location: SETX/Houston
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Re: Oil Prices
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:56 pm |
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270Handiman
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:46 pm Posts: 2342 Location: Mandeville, LA
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Re: Oil Prices
I saw a report online today saying that Obama is receiving a ton of credit for the price drop......are people really that stupid?
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:18 pm |
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JLACOUR
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:18 pm Posts: 4915 Location: Lake Jackson, TX
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Re: Oil Prices
_________________ 37 PD EFI FPR 18x48 Tiller SOLD -- 36 PD EFI FPR 18x48 Stick Steer SOLD -- 27 PD FPR 16x36 Skiff
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:44 pm |
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270Handiman
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:46 pm Posts: 2342 Location: Mandeville, LA
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Re: Oil Prices
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:47 pm |
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JLACOUR
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:18 pm Posts: 4915 Location: Lake Jackson, TX
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Re: Oil Prices
The next year will be slow for the 3rd parties, but will pick back up through 16 (which is bad timing with the election year). They substantially cut our capital for next year.
_________________ 37 PD EFI FPR 18x48 Tiller SOLD -- 36 PD EFI FPR 18x48 Stick Steer SOLD -- 27 PD FPR 16x36 Skiff
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:49 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:09 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
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Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:26 pm |
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Puddler45
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu May 03, 2012 9:07 am Posts: 1199 Location: Wisconsin's waters and woods
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Re: Oil Prices
Wisconsin has the biggest deposits of northern white sand which is the best sand for use in fracking. We have a lot of jobs in the sand industry. If oil stays down and rigs shut down in the shale plays its going to hurt a lot more than just oil producing states. I don't mind paying higher gas prices to support good paying us jobs. An extra $20 in the gas tank per week isn't going to hurt the average person.
_________________ 1744 floating a 23 MBHD Stage 2
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 9:57 am |
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Woodiebuster
MMT Elite Member
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:00 pm Posts: 6060 Location: Choudrant, La
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Re: Oil Prices
We are feeling the crunch. Went from 6-7 rigs and 2 frac crews to 1 rig and a frac job about once a month
_________________ CSM Custom 18x42 Battleship with a 36 PD beating you to the hole My Rig (Old Motor) viewtopic.php?f=5&t=45193
(New Motor) viewtopic.php?f=5&t=54733 Stumps Fear Me
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:22 pm |
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Lake Runner
MMT Pro Member
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:06 pm Posts: 111 Location: St. Martinville, La.
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Re: Oil Prices
It's all politics, fellas. They are trying to bankrupt Russia and Iran. I could tell you who, but I might not live to tell you.
_________________ 70 four stroke Yammie, 16' Duracraft w/pods
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:31 pm |
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meterman3
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:25 pm Posts: 1407
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Re: Oil Prices
On some of the existing wells the price for getting it out is like around 6 bucks . This is the first year we have exported more than imported Natural gas transporter
_________________ driving a gd in ur lake and i aprove this message
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:10 pm |
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WhoDat88
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu May 23, 2013 4:24 pm Posts: 2912 Location: Thibodaux, La
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Re: Oil Prices
I
_________________ 1850 Predator Series Stick Steer Option 40HP Gatortail
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:24 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:41 pm |
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WhoDat88
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu May 23, 2013 4:24 pm Posts: 2912 Location: Thibodaux, La
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Re: Oil Prices
_________________ 1850 Predator Series Stick Steer Option 40HP Gatortail
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:51 pm |
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jncarleton
MMT Member
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:50 pm Posts: 35
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Re: Oil Prices
I hear ya, there are a lot of people on either side of the isle on this issue. I just wish I was privy to those hunts or fishing trips... Problem with all of this is they are already laying off people all over, Halliburton just announced layoffs in Houston and I'm sure many more are to come.
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:00 pm |
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DUCK HEARSE
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:48 am Posts: 3161 Location: Alabama
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Re: Oil Prices
Hay easy on the high dollar hunts until I get back from mine this weekend:roll:
_________________ Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. - Mark Twain
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:13 pm |
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WhoDat88
MMT 1000 Club
Joined: Thu May 23, 2013 4:24 pm Posts: 2912 Location: Thibodaux, La
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Re: Oil Prices
_________________ 1850 Predator Series Stick Steer Option 40HP Gatortail
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Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:23 pm |
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