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How do they[insert your state here] know??
http://www.mudmotortalk.com/mmt_v2/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=7878		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  netman [ Wed Feb 17, 2010 10:07 am ]
Post subject:  How do they[insert your state here] know??
In regards to the other post on the ducks just now showing up. I was going to post this there but decided it would more than likely a better post on its own.
When we see how many ducks each state kills for the 09/10 season how do we/they know what the real number is?
Here is my point..in Indiana we have to have a new HIP number each year before the new season. The number is computer generated after you answer each question by punching a number on your phone. Upon completion you get a ten digit number. Some of the questions are did you hunt watefowl last year, press one is yes or two if no. Then it goes on to ask did you shot any ducks last year, press one for less than two or press two for ten or more[the question are not exactly like this but close]. Then it ask the same couple of questions for geese, crows,coots,rail and snipe. How do they know how many ducks and/or geese are killed each year by using this system????
There is no stinking way they can compute the number of birds killed each year. No way. What about guys like us that hunt two to five different states each year? What about guys like me that hunt four or five states and Canada each year. I have never received any questions on how many birds I kill combined,seperate or whatever.
My commercial fishing reports require me to keep accurated daily fish catches and they must be reported monthly. Now at the end of the year a guy can look and see exactly how many tons of whatever fish was commercially caught in Indiana. Now that number may or may not be exactly right because its based on weight and we know how fisherman are. But at least its more accurate that being asked .... if you caught more that six pounds of catfish press one.....
I feel waterfowl reports should be the same or by random mailings for detailed daily harvest.
Now the state hunting areas with daily numbers kill numbers is good for the state areas only but what about all the clubs and leases that mow down the birds each year???
So when I see how many birds each state kills each year I figure its just some number that is pulled out of the air just like how many mallards nested this year in the breeding grounds. Its just a guess.
I hunted with some waterfowl biologist several years ago and they told me how the ducks and geese get counted and I can say that is of question too.
Randy
Author:  dead animal [ Wed Feb 17, 2010 10:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
duck hunting is big money, especially in these hard times. they are gonna keep the count high so we don't get a 30 day 3 duck season, no matter the real count.

us down here in la ae scxrewed anyway. between shortstopping and overpressure we don't have it as god as we are used too.

it's always amazes me how i can hunt almost every day of the season and only kill a mallard or 2 all year long and it's supposed to be the most common duck in america.
if it weren't for teal, we'd of spent many a dull day afield this past season.
Author:  POKER1 [ Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
I would bet a good number of hunters dont give correct counts of birds they killed anyway. Some will be really low, The I don't want anyone to know what I'm doing crowd. Some will be really high, the lying their azzes off to impress folks crowd. And the honest folks probably come in last. So your right in that its impossible to know. They say we in LA killed quite a few birds. What I do know is that folks in my area were not part of that crowd because it sucked azz here.
Author:  dead animal [ Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
i always lie on the survey. i don't want anybody to know when i'm slammin the ducks. i see idiots claim they shot 300 ducks a yr when i know they didn't kill 50. it's all bs.
Author:  cb5331 [ Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
I thought the more birds killed, the more they continue to let you kill. If the killing numbers go down, it shows a population decrease. This would cause them to lower limits. If everyone is limiting out, then there is a good population of birds. This would cause them to keep limits where they are, or possible raise the limits. I dunno, just what I heard.

We usually say we limited out when filling out paperwork. When talking to another person, well we may say "we didn't see a thing" ;) even if there's 3 limits under the burlap. But most people on the public land are purty tight lipped.

Oh and in texas when doing the hip cert, they do ask quantities for each species, ducks, geese...
Author:  dkhntrdstn [ Thu Feb 18, 2010 2:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
Here in Utah some of us get asked if we want to send in wings of are birds. Then they send a list back to us saying what they was and the sex and the number of wings sent in.We have to do the same thing on the phone or computer.I would like to know how many ducks and geese get killed a year here. We all have a swan hunt and they only give out 2000 tags.
Author:  dpd [ Thu Feb 18, 2010 3:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
There are statistical formulas that can remove the margin of error, but netman and you guys bring up some valid points. How do you compensate the survey for those who always flat out lied, and by alot? I figured I was always ballparking my numbers when answering the HIP survey and might be plus or minus 20, but netman brings up a very good point. What about those who hunt multiple states? And the majority of hunters probably don't hunt multiple states, but I know guys that do, and in a 3-4 day hunting trip they can stack some ducks. I saw a friend and Christmas time that took a large party to Canada in September. They killed over 500 geese. Was that counted in LA or Canada?

Good questions Netman!
Author:  BROOKS [ Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
Another thot .... Do the folks that HIP count thays personnel kills .. or thay reportin' group kills ????

I really thank that it's all just a guestimations on the Feds part .... but you have to start somewheres.

I do know this ..... I absolutely have a love fo the sport and I am thankful that the Feds and DU and DW have made thays contributions ... ifin' I agree with thay's results or not ........
Author:  Mudgun [ Fri Feb 19, 2010 11:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How do they[insert your state here] know??
I did the waterfowler survey this year and I guess I'll probably get the wing survey in a few years. I answered correctly except I may have lied on what county I was hunting.
My understanding is that the season is set off of Spring counts done on the breeding grounds. They screw those up also. Canvasback season was closed last year because they pooched the count. They were everywhere. This year, they counted closer and re-opened the season and there were some serious Can beatdowns. Statistics can do funny things.
I agree that it will have ot be dire times before we see 3/30 and probably even 4/45. Stupid Virginia only takes 5 even if they set a 6/60.
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